Working Titles 97th Annual Oscar Picks
Let's talk about this year's Academy Awards
Another year of movies in the books and it’s time to hand out some Little Gold Men. That’s right folks, it’s Oscars Season and we here at Working Title Inc have some predictions for you. It’s one of my favorite exercises of the each year. I love Remembering Some Movies and seeing films I enjoyed rewarded. The competitive side of me also loves being right.
In 2021 I went 19/23, in 2022 I went 20/23, in 2023 I went 18/23, and last year I went 18/23 again, bringing me to a very respectable 75/92 over the last 4 years. I find this year’s Oscars to be a particularly challenging group of films to wrangle when it comes to picking winners. Like every year, there are some that I am very confident in as locks, but there are SEVERAL more this year that I cannot get my head around and have been flip-flopping over leading up to writing this. Some are virtual coin flips. It’s honestly a little exciting (and anxiety inducing if you care about predicting correctly like myself.) The past couple of years, there has been little opportunity for surprises and upsets but this year feels like it could break any number of ways. There’s a real possibility I only get like 10 or 11 right this year. I’d be thrilled to go 18/23.
Let’s make some picks. If you’re in an Oscars Pool with me please stop reading from here on out tysm.
Category: Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande - Wicked
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez
Who I Think WILL Win: Zoe Saldaña
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Monica Barbaro / Ariana Grande / Zoe Saldaña
Monica Barbaro learned to sing(!) like Joan Baez(!!!) for A Complete Unknown. Ariana Grande was incredibly entertaining in Wicked and even though I think Emilia Perez is shit from a butt, there is no doubt that Zoe Saldaña is incredible in it. She’s won every award for her performance leading up to this and I don’t think that changes here.
Category: Sound
Nominees:
A Complete Unknown (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco)
Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill)
Emilia Pérez (Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta)
Wicked (Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis
The Wild Robot (Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts)
Who I Think WILL Win: Dune: Part II
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Dune Part II
Dune should win several below the line awards this year and this should be one of them. I could see a world where A Complete Unknown makes a case, but I think Dune takes this one.
Category: Cinematography
Nominees:
Lol Crawley - The Brutalist
Greig Fraser - Dune: Part Two
Paul Guilhaume - Emilia Pérez
Ed Lachman - Maria
Jarin Blaschke - Nosferatu
Who I Think WILL Win: Lol Crawley
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Lol Crawley
Ed Lachman is due for an Academy Award and he won his guild’s award a couple week’s ago, throwing a bit of a wrench into this race, but I think Lol’s work on The Brutalist is too good to be ignored.
Category: Documentary Short
Nominees:
Death by Numbers (Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard)
I Am Ready, Warden (Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp)
Incident (Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven)
Instruments of a Beating Heart (Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari)
The Only Girl in the Orchestra (Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington)
Who I Think WILL Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Who I Think SHOULD Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Reader, I won’t pretend to have seen all of these shorts because I haven’t. I’ve only seen 3 and one of them is I Am Ready, Warden which is about a man on death row. It’s quite good and available on Paramount +. It’s a kind of classic Oscars documentary done in a little different way. Don’t have a ton of confidence in this one, but I’ll take it.
Category: Visual Effects
Nominees:
Alien: Romulus (Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan)
Better Man (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs)
Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke)
Wicked (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould)
Who I Think WILL Win: Dune: Part II
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Dune: Part II
Dune Part II had some of the coolest shit I’ve ever seen on a screen. It should win although there have been rumblings of an Apes upset with the Disney machine behind it. Dune was the bigger hit, so I’m giving it the edge.
Category: Animated Feature
Nominees:
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Who I Think WILL Win: The Wild Robot
Who I Think SHOULD Win: The Wild Robot / Flow
This is a two movie race and it’s honestly one that I am least confident in; one of those virtual coin flips I mentioned earlier. I’m going with The Wild Robot although I will not be surprised at all if I’m wrong and Flow takes this one.
Category: Animated Short
Nominees:
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!
Who I Think WILL Win: Yuck!
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Wander to Wonder
Another category of shorts that I am woefully ill-prepared for, but I did see the two listed here and they seem to be the consensus best of the group. Yuck! feels like one the voters might go for more, but I’m shooting from the hip.
Category: Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Yura Borisov - Anora
Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice
Who I Think WILL Win: Kieran Culkin
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Guy Pearce / Yura Borisov
Kieran Culkin has this thing wrapped up which is a shame because he is honestly my least favorite nominee among the bunch. This is not a reflection on him or his performance, as it is quite good. I just found much more to enjoy in Guy Pearce and Yura Borisov’s performances, respectively.
Category: Best International Feature
Nominees:
I'm Still Here - Brazil
The Girl with the Needle - Denmark
Emilia Pérez - France
The Seed of the Sacred Fig - Germany
Flow - Latvia
Who I Think WILL Win: Emilia Pérez
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Flow
I really can’t call this one. A few months ago Emilia Pérez had this locked up but after some really gross tweets from star Karla Sofía Gascón surfaced, it has really done a number on the film’s prospects for any major awards. I’m Still Here has had a really nice campaign and also has nominees in major categories and could easily step up to fill the void. Even as I type this, I’m still unsure of who’s going to take it, but I’m taking the coward’s way out and sticking with Emilia Pérez. I think this is the one category it holds on to.
Category: Best Short, Live Action
Nominees:
A Lien (Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz)
Anuja (Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai)
I'm Not a Robot (Victoria Warmerdam and Trent)
The Last Ranger (Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw)
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek)
Who I Think WILL Win: A Lien
Who I Think SHOULD Win: A Lien
Taking a bit of a risk on this one since Anuja has the star power of Mindy Kaling and Netflix behind it, but I think quality wins out and A Lien brings it home.
Category: Costume Design
Nominees:
A Complete Unknown -Arianne Phillips
Conclave - Lisy Christl
Gladiator II - Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
Nosferatu - Linda Muir
Wicked - Paul Tazewell
Who I Think WILL Win: Wicked
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Nosferatu
This one also feels like a pretty secure win. Say what you will about Wicked (seriously, say whatever you want) but the costumes are pretty good and there’s not a much else that could really give it a run for it’s money.
Category: Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
A Complete Unknown - screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
Conclave - screenplay by Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez -screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
Nickel Boys - screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing - screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield
Who I Think WILL Win: Conclave
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Nickel Boys / Conclave
Conclave has been dominating this category throughout awards season so I’m taking it to continue doing so here. Nickel Boys was my favorite movie of last year and one of my favorites of the last 5 years easily. I wish it was going to be recognized in some way this evening and this was probably it’s best shot.
Category: Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Anora - written by Sean Baker
The Brutalist - written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain - written by Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 - written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David
The Substance - written by Coralie Fargeat
Who I Think WILL Win: Anora
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Anora / A Real Pain
This probably gives away how I think a few other categories are gonna go, but I think this is a win for Anora and Sean Baker. There are very strong indicators that A Real Pain could come out and take this and Jesse Eisenberg has been running a very good campaign but ultimately Baker’s script is the best of the bunch.
Category: Best Original Score
Nominees:
The Brutalist - Daniel Blumberg
Conclave - Volker Bertelmann
Emilia Pérez - Clément Ducol and Camille
Wicked - John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
The Wild Robot - Kris Bowers
Who I Think WILL Win: Daniel Blumberg
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Daniel Blumberg / Volker Bertelmann
There’s no better score on this list than Blumberg’s work on The Brutalist but Volker Bertelmann’s score for Conclave is incredibly propelling and his work on 2022’s All Quiet On The Western Front is as equally good.
Category: Film Editing
Nominees:
Anora - Sean Baker
The Brutalist - David Jancso
Conclave - Nick Emerson
Emilia Pérez - Juliette Welfling
Wicked - Myron Kerstein
Who I Think WILL Win: Conclave
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Anora / Conclave
Another one that I really have no idea on outside of who the top contenders are. If Conclave wins, Best Picture gets interesting. If The Brutalist wins, it gets VERY interesting. If Anora wins, it falls in line a little more clearly. I’m going with Conclave but I’m not sure if that ultimately means anything more for it’s chances.
Category: Feature Documentary
Nominees:
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane
Who I Think WILL Win: No Other Land
Who I Think SHOULD Win: No Other Land / Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
No Other Land is essential viewing this year for obvious reasons and I think it will actually be the winner. There could be a Porcelain War victory here as well, I wouldn’t be surprised, but I think No Other Land is something even Oscar voters can’t ignore.
Category: Production Design
Nominees:
The Brutalist - Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia
Conclave - Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter
Dune: Part Two - Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Nosferatu - Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová
Wicked - Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
Who I Think WILL Win: Wicked
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Dune: Part II / Nosferatu
Dune Part II is an incredible exercise in imagination and the design in Nosferatu is sublime, but I think Wicked takes this one and not to give it too much credit, but the production design is actually good. It’s the lighting that’s bad!
Category: Original Song
Nominees:
”El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; (Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyrics by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren)
“Like A Bird” from Sing Sing (Music and Lyrics by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada)
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (Music and Lyrics by Camille and Clément Ducol)
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (Music and Lyrics by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin)
Who I Think WILL Win: El Mal
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Nobody, I hate this category (but just give one to Diane Warren and get it over with!!)
Category: Best Director
Nominees:
Sean Baker - Anora
Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
James Mangold - A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard - Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
Who I Think WILL Win: Sean Baker
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Sean Baker
Sean Baker won the Director’s Guild Award and that has historically been the marker of a Oscar winner. Not overthinking this one.
Category: Lead Actor
Nominees:
Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice
Who I Think WILL Win: Adrien Brody
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Adrien Brody
I am a card carrying member of the Timothée Chalamet fan club. I think the dude rocks and I cannot wait to watch him in movies for the next 30 years. I won’t be mad if he wins. I’ll actually be thrilled. I just think he’s a little too young at this moment in time and that Adrien Brody shoulders an almost 4 hour movie with supreme talent. He can and most likely will win.
Category: Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Nominees:
A Different Man - Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado
Emilia Pérez - Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini
Nosferatu - David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton
The Substance - Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli
Wicked - Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth
Who I Think WILL Win: The Substance
Who I Think SHOULD Win: The Substance / Nosferatu
Brother, if you haven’t seen The Substance then you gotta remedy that. The makeup and hair in that are top notch. A Different Man could make the case, but I don’t think anybody is topping what they did in The Substance.
Category: Lead Actress
Nominees:
Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison - Anora
Demi Moore - The Substance
Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here
Who I Think WILL Win: Demi Moore
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Mikey Madison
All respect to Demi Moore who is an absolute legend and is overdue for one of these, but Mikey Madison gave the best performance this year which is what the award is ostensibly about. She won the BAFTA last week, but the BAFTAs are weird. This is Demi’s Oscar.
Category: Best Picture
Nominees:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Who I Think WILL Win: Anora(?)
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Nickel Boys / Anora
It’s really funny. For a long time Anora felt like the front runner to the Oscars, then it dipped for a few months with the Conclave Discourse and The Brutalist Moment and even the weird Emilia Pérez Thing, all to ultimately end up back as the frontrunner, even if only by a slim margin. This is the least confident I’ve felt in picking a Best Picture winner since I started doing this, but I think it comes down to this and Conclave. I’m going with Anora. Again though, shoutout to Nickel Boys, please go see that movie.
I’m usually way more confident in my Oscar predictions but this year has stumped me. I’m just hoping the movies I like are rewarded and the movies I hate aren’t. That’s really what it’s all about. Happy Oscars Weekend everybody.
Good luck in your pools. We’ll see you soon.
I have a vast number of agreements with you from my Oscar picks post today, though I'm all for Dune Part Two to twopeat, too, on many of its Dune Part One Oscars, including Greig Fraser for cinematography. Our family agrees: the toughest race by far is between Flow and The Wild Robot. I did a road trip today and we listened to your post via the AI option. My youngest said of your piece, "This is actually really interesting," so you're winning in the 11-year-old demographic!
https://rratedmovieclub.substack.com/p/97th-annual-oscars-picks-from-r-rated