Working Title's 96th Annual Oscar Picks
Let's talk about the Academy Awards.
I cannot believe the Oscars are here. As a Big Movie Guy™️ I am usually more on top of these things but this one really snuck up on me.
I usually start this edition of the newsletter bemoaning the state of the Oscars and how out of touch they are, and why they are ultimately meaningless; an excuse for rich people to pat themselves on the back.
I’m not going to do that. I had a great time at the movies last year! There were a ton of quality films and movies that also objectively sucked ass but that were fun to watch. I’m choosing gratitude. I am living, and laughing and also loving. To put it frankly, I am here
So let’s get to the picks, that’s what we’re here for anyway. In 2021 I went 19/23, in 2022 I went 20/23, and last year I went 18/23 bringing me to a respectable 57/69 (nice) over the last three ceremonies. I’m batting .826 since this newsletter began. I’ll take it.
I hope these picks lead you to victory in an Oscar Pool, a bet amongst friends or coworkers or just somewhere else where you can rub somone’s face in it, unless it’s against me in which case please stop reading <3
It’s Hollywood’s Biggest Night. Let’s make some picks.
Category: Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Jodie Foster - Nyad
America Ferrera - Barbie
Who I Think WILL Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Why: This has been locked up for months now. She’s won every single award en route to the Academy Awards and this is perfectly fine with me. She’s wonderful in The Holdovers, which was one of my favorite movies of last year.
Category: Sound
The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic)
Maestro (Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic)
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor)
Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell)
The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)
Who I Think WILL Win: Oppenheimer
Who I Think SHOULD Win: The Zone of Interest
Why: The Zone of Interest has some of the most interesting, haunting, and and affecting sound design I’ve heard in movies in perhaps the last 20 years. I think in any other year, it would win. I just think the Oppenheimer wave is simply too big and will sweep up some “below the line” categories, this being one of them.
Category: Cinematography
El Conde (Edward Lachman)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)
Who I Think WILL Win: Oppenheimer
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Oppenheimer / Killers of the Flower Moon
Why: This is one of the “no brainer” picks for Oppenheimer as it charges toward dominating the Oscars, but that doesn’t mean it’s not well deserved. Hoyte van Hoytema is a master and did some truly incredible work on this film. He also shot NOPE, a movie I love, so glad to see him get his due. Shout out to Rodrigo Prieto for shooting both KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON and BARBIE. That rips.
Category: Documentary Short
The ABCs of Book Banning (Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic)
The Barber of Little Rock (John Hoffman and Christine Turner)
Island in Between (S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien)
The Last Repair Shop (Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers)
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó (Sean Wang and Sam Davis)
Who I Think WILL Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó / The Barber of Little Rock
Why: I’m gonna be completely honest, this is one of the categories I’m most ill prepared for. I usually try to see all the nominated shorts before the ceremony and I just was unable to do that. They’re all pretty easy to find on various streaming platforms and YouTube and if you wanna try to squeeze them in, I think you should. I have only seen the three I have listed above, but people smarter than me are leaning ABCs of Book Banning, so I will as well.
Category: Visual Effects
The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould)
Godzilla Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 (Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek)
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould)
Napoleon (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould)
Who I Think WILL Win: Godzilla: Minus One
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Godzilla: Minus One / The Creator
Why: I’m going heart a little over head with this one. All the guild stuff has been awarded to The Creator and I totally get that, it looked incredible. But there has been a nice swell of support around Godzilla: Minus One and I’m hoping for a feel good moment on the night that seems pretty straightforward for the most part.
Category: Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Who I Think WILL Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Who I Think SHOULD Win: The Boy and the Heron / Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Why: Two of these films that are nominated were two of my favorite movies of last year, straight up. I had an insanely hard time choosing which one I think will win for a myriad of reasons, but Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse won the Animation Guild’s award (The Annie) so I’m giving it a slight edge. I will be thrilled if either one of these two movies wins and I anticipate that will be the case.
Category: Animated Short
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Who I Think WILL Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Who I Think SHOULD Win: idk lol
Why: Another instance of me not really having a good grasp on the films that are nominated here. I think it’s a two horse race between Letter To A Pig and War Is Over! for two different reasons. 1. Letter To A Pig speaks to our modern times. 2. War Is Over! has a lot of sway behind it (Sean Lennon, Yoko Ono). War Is Over! won the Annie Award, so that’s what I’m going with.
Category: Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
Sterling K Brown - American Fiction
Who I Think WILL Win: Robert Downey Jr
Who I Think SHOULD Win: I honestly like every single performance here, so I will be happy with anyone even though there’s no way RDJ doesn’t win
Why: RDJ has been on the warpath this awards season. He is completely unstoppable and his performance in Oppenheimer is worthy of all the accolades he’s received. I know it’s easy to just think of him as Iron Man, but he’s a sublime (Ken voice) actor who delivers a truly outstanding performance here. Plus, all his speeches have been wonderful and I’m excited to see what he does with his time at the Oscars.
Category: Best International Feature
Io Capitano - Italy
Perfect Days - Japan
Society of the Snow - Spain
The Teachers’ Lounge - Germany
The Zone of Interest - The United Kingdom
Who I Think WILL Win: The Zone of Interest
Who I Think SHOULD Win: The Zone of Interest
Why: The Zone of Interest is not going to win Best Picture, but I think you could make the case for it. As I say later on in this newsletter, this movie is one of the most affecting and haunting films of my moviegoing life. It is absolutely going to win here and I encourage you to seek it out.
Category: Best Short, Live Action
The After (Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham)
Invincible (Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron)
Knight of Fortune (Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk)
Red, White and Blue (Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane)
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Wes Anderson and Steven Rales)
Who I Think WILL Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Who I Think SHOULD Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar / Invincible
Why: I’ll keep it simple here. I think Wes finally gets his Oscar statue.
Category: Costume Design
Barbie - Jacqueline Durran
Poor Things - Holly Waddington
Killers of the Flower Moon - Jacqueline West
Oppenheimer - Ellen Mirojnick
Napoleon - Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
Who I Think WILL Win: Poor Things
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Poor Things / Barbie
Why: Everyone is Poor Things was getting a fit off at all times. I did want everything Ken was wearing in Barbie, but I also don’t look like that so who knows.
Category: Best Adapted Screenplay
Barbie - Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
Poor Things - Screenplay by Tony McNamara
American Fiction - Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
Oppenheimer - Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
The Zone of Interest - Written by Jonathan Glazer
Who I Think WILL Win: American Fiction
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Oppenheimer / Barbie
Why: If you haven’t kept up with other award shows (which is totally understandable) you might not know this but American Fiction has been picking up an insane amount of steam as we head toward this award show and it seems pretty much locked in for the win, so I’m picking it here. I think the book Oppenheimer is based on is a really long, complicated book and the adaptation of it to screen was truly special. Barbie should not be in this category (should be in Original Screenplay) but making a movie based off a toy this enjoyable deserves recognition.
Category: Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall - Screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
The Holdovers - Written by David Hemingson
Past Lives - Written by Celine Song
May December - Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
Maestro - Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
Who I Think WILL Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Past Lives
Why: I really want Past Lives to win an Oscar so bad because I enjoyed it so much and it starts with the script. I do not think that is going to happen, but I wanted to give it some recognition since I don’t think it will be getting any on Sunday. Anatomy of a Fall has been another script that’s picked up steam as we head toward the award ceremony and I think it wins.
Category: Best Original Score
American Fiction - Laura Karpman
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - John Williams
Killers of the Flower Moon - Robby Robertson
Oppenheimer - Ludwig Göransson
Poor Things - Jerskin Fendrix
Who I Think WILL Win: Ludwig Göransson
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Ludwig Göransson or Robby Robertson
Why: Can you hear the music, Robert?
This score is honestly good in what’s shaping up to be a steamroller year, so I’m not mad at this winning. The music is a critical part of the film and Ludwig Göransson has taken up residence as this generation’s most well known composer.
Category: Film Editing
Oppenheimer - Jennifer Lame
The Holdovers - Kevin Tent
Anatomy of a Fall - Laurent Sénéchal
Killers of the Flower Moon - Thelma Schoonmaker
Poor Things - Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Who I Think WILL Win: Jennifer Lame
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Jennifer Lame
Why: Oppenheimer is a 3 hour movie about the life of a theoretical physicist but it absolutely hums. The choices made are good ones and lend itself to telling the story and keeping an amazing pace. Another W in the Oppenheimer column.
Category: Documentary, Feature
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
Who I Think WILL Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Who I Think SHOULD Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Why: 20 Days in Mariupol is an astounding work of journalism that is a really hard watch at times. I won’t pretend to have seen all of the other films, but I have seen a couple of them and nothing affected me like 20 Days in Mariupol. I think Oscar voters will feel the same way.
Category: Production Design
Barbie - Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
Poor Things - Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration:
Zsuzsa Mihalek
Oppenheimer - Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman
Killers of the Flower Moon - Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
Napoleon - Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff
Who I Think WILL Win: Poor Things
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Poor Things / Barbie
Why: Poor Things was easily one of the most interesting movies I watched last year and that was due in no small part to the production design. This one should win, but Barbieland was also a delight.
Category: Original Song
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren)
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt)
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (Music and Lyric by Scott George)
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)
Who I Think WILL Win: What Was I Made For?”
Who I Think SHOULD Win: “I’m Just Ken”
Why: I think “What Was I Made For” is honestly kind of boring, respectfully but there’s no doubt it’s gonna win this one, getting Billie Eilish her second Oscar. “I’m Just Ken” was a genuinely fun twist in the film BARBIE and also played into the actual narrative of the film! Can’t wait to see him perform this bad boy live tbh.
Category: Best Director
Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
Who I Think WILL Win: Christopher Nolan
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Christopher Nolan / Jonathan Glazer
Why: I think this is a combo of awarding a good movie and also the career of a widely respected director. While I think Glazer’s Zone of Interest is a remarkable achievement in filmmaking and Scorsese is Scorsese and should always be recognized, this one is going to Nolan.
Category: Lead Actor
Bradley Cooper - Maestro
Colman Domingo - Rustin
Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
Who I Think WILL Win: Cillian Murphy
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Cillian Murphy / Paul Giamatti / Bradley Cooper (for pure chaos)
Why: Bradley Cooper has been giving every single ounce of his being to this Oscar campaign and I simply cannot thank him enough for it. He’s doing it for us, we should be grateful. Unfortunately for him, it is going to be all for naught. Cillian Murphy is taking this one home for Oppenheimer. He carried almost every single moment of this film and he carries it well. Shout out to the Giamatti-heads though. I see you. I hear you. I am with you.
Category: Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda - Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
Maestro - Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
Oppenheimer - Luisa Abel
Poor Things - Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
Society of the Snow - Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
Who I Think WILL Win: Maestro
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Society of the Snow / Poor Things
Why: The guys in Society of the Snow look as grizzled as you can get and what they did to Willam Dafoe in Poor Things was an absolute treat but I think this is Maestro’s only win. The Makup Artist/Hairstylist Guild awarded this film and Kazu Hiro is widely respected.
Category: Lead Actress
Annette Bening - Nyad
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan - Maestro
Emma Stone - Poor Things
Who I Think WILL Win: Lily Gladstone
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Lily Gladstone / Emma Stone / Sandra Hüller
Why: This is probably the tightest race of the night, imo. Emma and Lilly have split awards all season long but there has been such a wave of support for Lilly and she has been so warmly received at each of her wins. I think she pulls it out.
Between Poor Things and The Curse, Emma Stone has been on a massive heater this year and I would not be surprised at all if she comes through with a win. I’m also putting Sandra Hüller as a darkhorse because she might have the most “leading performance” out of everyone here. The movie rests on her shoulders and she is mesmerizing the entire time she is on screen, including a stomach churning argument sequence. Honestly just along for the ride on this one.
Category: Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Who I Think WILL Win: Oppenheimer
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Oppenheimer / The Zone of Interest
Why: Keeping in mind that this is all made up and doesn’t matter in any real way, I think the Academy’s job is to celebrate the movies and doing so is twofold: 1. Helping people discover new and unique films that offer perspectives we might normally not get and 2. Honoring and awarding the films that a bunch of people showed up to watch.
It’s been clear for some time that this is going to be the Oppenheimer Oscars and I can’t say I’m particularly mad about that. Maybe I’m biased because I really enjoyed that movie, but I’m surely not the only one. The BARBENHEIMER event this summer was truly something special to see and felt like the first time in a long time that we were back at pre-2020 movie going levels.
I think this puts a cap on a huge night for this movie and I will be quite fine watching it happen. I know it can be boring for a film to sweep through this award show, but something with the scope and storytelling capacity of Oppenheimer deserves it, at least to me.
There you have it. All 23 Academy Awards predicted with at least 95% certainty. Let’s go win some money.
You can follow me on Twitter as I tweet about The Oscars.
You can find me on Letterboxd here.
You can (and should) subscribe to and share Working Title below. See you soon.
You and I have a lot of similar picks here. My post on who will win and who I think should win goes live on Sunday because today I wanted to wrap up seeing all 10 Best Picture nominees. Went to The Zone of Interest in the theater with my oldest (haunting, much?) and just wrapped Anatomy of a Fall. WOW.
I am a Giamatti-head. And I feel seen. Congrats, Cillian.