Working Title's 94th Annual Academy Awards Picks
Let's talk about who's taking home some trophies.
It’s Oscars SZN baby. That’s right, it’s finally time for people to start talking about Hollywood for once around here. We don’t talk enough about LA in our national discourse. It’s time the people who make movies get their DUE.
It stands to reason that as someone who loves movies, I would love the one awards show that celebrates them in the most visible way possible. But you know who hates the Oscars? The people who make the show. They simply won’t get out of their own way trying to “fix” a telecast that has long been passed in popularity by random NFC East divisional games in mid-October. They eliminate popular categories from the broadcast. They have hosts that are bad or no hosts at all. They cut out montages! The Academy and ABC are constantly wishing it was 1998 and that big, theatrical movies were at the center of culture. That is an absurd fantasy to have and it’s futile to create an awards show as if it were reality. Bilge Ebri wrote about this way better than I can in an amazing piece in Vulture. I highly recommend checking it out if you haven’t yet, but it succinctly dissects the problem with the modern Oscars and presents a realistic and fun look at what the show could be.
Somehow, in spite of all that, I like the show. Not only that but in an admittedly futile gesture, I CARE about the Oscars. I want them to do well! I want people to care about movies and who makes them and to feel like they have something to look forward to when it’s time to reward the craft. The Oscars are my second Super Bowl. They’re an excuse to eat bad food and start drinking before noon. I hope that if you’re reading this newsletter, you care a little bit too and I hope you’ll watch along on Sunday as well.
Let’s get to the good stuff and make some picks. This is one of my favorite aspects of the Oscars. I’m competitive by nature (ask any of my 6 fantasy football leagues) and this gives me a chance to flex what little film knowledge I have when the topic of movies, however briefly, enters the national discourse. If you’re in an Oscar pool or making bets among friends, I hope these picks guide you well. I have won quite a few pools over the last few years and usually feel good about my picks. You can check out my picks from last year’s ceremony for some cold hard proof. That said, I’m not perfect and this is a weird year. I could eat shit publicly in this newsletter. Would honestly be pretty funny.
Happy Oscars Szn. Go win your Oscar pools, unless we’re in one together in which case, fuck off.
Category: Best Documentary Short
Audible (Netflix)
Lead Me Home (Netflix)
The Queen of Basketball (NYT Docs)
Three Songs for Benazir (Netflix)
When We Were Bullies (HBO MAX)
Who I Think WILL Win: The Queen of Basketball
Who I think SHOULD Win: The Queen of Basketball
Why: Two of the executive producers on this film are Steph Curry and Shaq. The thing about the shorts categories at the Oscars is that most people don’t see them for one reason or another and they reward star power behind it. The late Kobe Bryant won an Academy Award and I think two more NBA players are added to the list.
Category: Best Animated Short
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Who I Think WILL Win: Robin, Robin
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Robin, Robin
Why: Robin, Robin has a couple of things working in its favor. It comes from a known studio in Aardman Animations and features a voice cast that features celebrities. It’s also the only one you can watch streaming in your home right now without renting (it’s on Netflix)
Category: Best Live Action Short
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Who I Think WILL Win: The Long Goodbye
Who I Think SHOULD Win: The Long Goodbye
Why: Two words: Riz Ahmed. And it’s an issues movie.
Category: Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Who I Think WILL Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Cruella
Why: I’ll be the first to admit that I’m not the most cognizant when it comes to this award, but to me, it has to go to the crew from The Eyes of Tammy Faye. So much of this movie is held together by the transformation of Jessica Chastain— a transformation achieved mainly through her hair and makeup. No other movie comes close as far as impact.
Category: Best Visual Effects
Dune
Free Guy (lol)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
No Time to Die
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Who I Think WILL Win: Dune
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Dune
Why: For the next few moments of this newsletter, just keep in mind that I think Dune is going to clean up in the technical categories, of which we’re about to hit a run. I think Dune was too much of a cultural moment for the Academy to not recognize it, but they’re not ready to recognize it in one of the “above the line” awards. I think Dune takes home a lot of hardware in this regard. Plus, none of these others look like Dune looks.
Category: Best Costume Design
Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran)
Dune (Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan)
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)
Who I Think WILL Win: Cruella
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Cruella/Nightmare Alley
Why: They turned Emma Stone into a cartoon character. She wears a million costumes. I think Cruella takes it home. Jenny Beavan was the lead costume designer on Mad Max: Fury Road and is an icon in the film community. I think it’s in the bag.
Category: Best Sound
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Who I Think WILL Win: Dune
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Dune
Why: The soundscape of Dune is so integral to the immersion you feel in the film. It’s not the same movie without it. See above for my thoughts on Dune’s technical awards prowess.
Category: Best Film Editing
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick… BOOM!
Who I Think WILL Win: Dune
Who I Think SHOULD Win: The Power of the Dog/King Richard
Why: I think The Power of the Dog is a beautifully paced film and that’s because of its editing. King Richard puts really good tennis on-screen which isn’t easy and it also won the American Cinema Editors Award a few weeks ago. That said, I think Dune takes it for the reasons I’ve already discussed and because The Academy loves a BIG MOVIE with lots of moving parts.
Category: Best Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Who I Think WILL Win: Dune
Who I Think SHOULD Win: The Tragedy of Macbeth/Nightmare Alley
Why: The Tragedy of Macbeth was my favorite designed movie of 2021/22. It was quite frankly, stunning. If you put that movie on and pause it at just about any point, you’re gonna see something you like. Nightmare Alley takes you to a noir dreamland that’s been missing in film for a while. That said, Dune again, takes it. Everything in that movie feels lived in, even though it’s creating worlds that we’ve never been to and that’s no small feat. Another technical award for the Big D. Let’s get that trending by the way. Everybody tweet #BIGD for Dune on Sunday.
Category: Best Cinematography
Dune (Greig Fraser)
Nightmare Alley (Dan Lausten)
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)
Who I Think WILL Win: Dune
Who I Think SHOULD Win: All of them, kind of? West Side Story was a real treat.
Why: I know it’s boring to pick Dune here again, but Greig Fraser also just shot The Batman (2023 Best Picture Nominee, mark it down) and that puts him over the top but Kaminski and Spielberg are a potent combo. I won’t be mad if they win at all.
Category: Best Original Score
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)
Who I Think WILL Win: Dune
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Dune
Why: Hans Zimmer literally created instruments that didn’t exist for this score. What do you want from me? Good effort from Jonny Greenwood (shoutout Radiohead) but I don’t know how you take down the gawd Hans.
Category: Best Original Song
Be Alive (King Richard)
Dos Oruguitas (Encanto)
Down to Joy (Belfast)
No Time to Die (No Time to Die)
Somehow You Do (Four Good Days)
Who I Think WILL Win: “No Time To Die”
Who I Think SHOULD Win: We Don’t Talk About Bruno from Encanto
Why: I usually think this category sucks. I love music but original songs from movies are never my favorite part of the ceremony. “No Time To Die” has Billie Eilish and Finneas behind it. It’s probably unwise of me to bet against Beyonce (Be Alive) but I am doing it anyway.
Category: Best International Feature
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Demark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Who I Think WILL Win: Drive My Car
Who I Think SHOULD Win: The Worst Person In The World/Drive My Car
Why: Two of my favorite films are represented right here in this category. The Worst Person In The World vs Drive My Car. Drive My Car is nominated for Best Picture. It doesn’t win that, but it wins this one.
Category: Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells Vs the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Who I Think WILL Win: Encanto
Who I Think SHOULD Win: The Mitchells vs The Machines
Why: It’s hard to bet against Pixar in this category, but don’t count out The Mitchells vs The Machines surge that is HAPPENING BABY. A Lord & Miller production has won this award before (the biggest possible shoutout to Into The Spider-Verse) and I would love for them to pull it out here, but I don’t think you can take down the Pixar/Lin Manuel-Miranda combo.
Category: Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing With Fire
Who I Think WILL Win: Summer of Soul
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Summer of Soul/Flee
Why: I haven’t seen a few of these tbh, but honestly that doesn’t matter. Summer of Soul has been pegged for this one for a while. Incredible movie and performances from the 60s. Questlove’s name behind it. Flee is having a moment, but I don’t think it’s a big enough moment to win.
Category: Best Adapted Screenplay
Coda (Sian Heder)
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe)
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
Who I Think WILL Win: The Lost Daughter (with a potential Coda upset, but I’m not hedging any bets. I’m going Lost Daughter but won’t be surprised with a Coda win)
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Drive My Car/The Power of the Dog
Why: I think as far as screenplays go, The Lost Daughter is probably the strongest. I’ve read the novel version of The Power of the Dog and Jane Campion does some incredible stuff translating it to film. That said, I think we’re due for a Maggie Gyllenhall moment.
Category: Best Original Screenplay
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay, David Sirota)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
The Worst Person in the World (Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier)
Who I Think WILL Win: Belfast(?)
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Licorice Pizza/The Worst Person In The World
Why: Belfast was a Best Picture frontrunner when it first came out but has fallen off that pace. They want to reward Belfast SOMEHOW and I think this is the place that they do it. Licorice Pizza should win this IMO, but I think certain storytelling elements and choices are going to be held against it. The Worst Person In The World was one of my favorite screenplays of last year, but I think it’s too far lost in the fray.
Category: Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Who I Think WILL Win: Ariana Debose
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Aunjanue Ellis / Jessie Buckley
Why: If you’ve been paying any attention to awards season outside The Oscars, this one is pretty much locked up. Will be very surprised if Ariana doesn’t win this one although both Aunjanu and Jessie gave incredible performances in their respective films.
Category: Supporting Actor
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (Coda)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Who I Think WILL Win: Troy Kotsur for Coda
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Why: Coda is having a moment and has been coming on strong in a lot of different categories and I think Troy is rewarded as such. I thought Kodi Smit-McPhee gave one of the absolute best performances of the year, but he’s in contention with somebody from his own film (JESSE PLEMONS HIVE PLEASE RISE) and The Academy loves to reward a vet. Troy takes this one.
Category: Best Actress
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Who I Think WILL Win: Jessica Chastain
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Olivia Coleman/Penélope Cruz
Why: Jessica Chastain is Going For It™️ big time in this movie. She completely transforms herself (see the makeup award above) and The Academy eats that shit right up. I don’t feel very confident in this pick. It could very easily be Penélope Cruz. She carries a Pedro Almodóvar film. Olivia Coleman does the same for The Lost Daughter. Real dart throw here.
Category: Best Actor
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick … BOOM!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Who I Think WILL Win: Will Smith
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Will Smith
Why: King Richard wasn’t the best movie of the year, but hot damn was it fun to see Will Smith doing a big Movie Star thing. He went for it. He’s gonna be rewarded for it. It’s good when Will Smith is in movies. It’s good when he’s in the culture. He’s been campaigning for months. It’s his and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t win. I wanna see him give an Oscar Speech. Let him have it.
Category: Best Director
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Drive My Car (Ryûsuke Hamaguchi)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Who I Think WILL Win: Jane Campion
Who I Think SHOULD Win: Drive My Car (Ryûsuke Hamaguchi)
Why: I think Campion takes this. She’s won it at every other award show this season and I don’t think she stops here. I also think it sets up the next category. Shoutout one more time to Drive My Car though. Watch that movie.
Category: Best Picture
Belfast
Coda
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Who I Think WILL Win: Power of the Dog
Who I Think SHOULD Win: The Power of the Dog
Why: The Power of the Dog is a beautiful movie with a heralded director, a very recognizable cast, and is available to stream on the biggest platform out right now. It’s a movie that rewards rewatching and it’s a movie that is admired, but not beloved. I think that equals the win here. There has been a quite large Coda surge in the past few months. I don’t think it’s been enough and I think it came a little late. I think Power of the Dog takes it. Honestly, as long as it’s not Don’t Look Up, I really don’t care.
Use these picks as you see fit and feel free to @ me on Twitter where you think I’m wrong (@saulmalone). We’ll take a look back in a few weeks and see how we did with our picks.
We’ve got some really cool stuff coming in the next weeks, so as always share this with your friends and thanks for subscribing!
lol at your pick for Best Original Song...the whole Encanto soundtrack lives rent free in my head...all.day.long.
Love the shot at Don't Look Up at the end hahaha. I might steal some of these picks for my annual oscar wager with my wife. Wish me luck.