Working Title's 100% Correct Oscar Picks
let's talk about who I think is gonna win some trophies
Award Season™️ is in full swing and this Sunday night, my personal favorite of all the awards shows will air. That’s right. It’s Oscars time.
I obviously love movies and as such have a definite soft spot for this particular awards ceremony. I also realize how stupid they are. At the end of the day, they don’t matter at all. It’s rich people in a room giving awards to themselves for how good their tastes are and how cool the art they make is. It’s all very much up its own ass, but I’m still a sucker for it. I like seeing the films I enjoyed rewarded and people get their due.
Maybe I’m a dupe, but I don’t think I’m alone. Every year all my friends ask me for my Oscar picks for their various Oscar pools, so at least people are still interested in the gambling aspect of the evening.
Well, there’s nothing I like more than helping out my friends and getting them some money. Below, you’ll find my Oscar predictions, broken down in three ways: who I think will win (head), who I want to win (heart), and a potential darkhorse candidate. I’ll also write a little bit explaining my thinking! These are listed in order of how the show usually runs, so if you want just the big categories, skip to the bottom!
Hope you all win your pools (unless we’re in one together) and happy Oscars Szn!
Category: Best Supporting Actress
Maria Backalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Coleman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Who I Think Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn
Who I Want To Win: Yuh-Jung Youn
Darkhorse: Glenn Close
Why: There’s been pretty steady momentum for Yuh-Jung Youn and her performance in MINARI and for good reason. She gives an amazing performance. The only thing that could potentially trip her up is if the Academy decides to honor Glenn Close’s career rather than her performance in HILLBILLY ELEGY. That movie sucks, but Glenn Close is a celebrated actress who doesn’t have an Oscar. It might be the case of “she’s due.”
Category: Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, One Night In Miami
Paul Raci, The Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Who I Think Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Who I Want To Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Darkhorse: Lakeith Stanfield
Why: It’s a shame that Lakieth Stanfield and Daniel Kaluuya are going head to head because they both deserve trophies for their performances, but Kaluuya’s performance as Fred Hampton is one of the best I’ve seen in the past 5-10 years. He’s electric and should have this one in the bag.
Category: Best Original Song
Husavik, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Fight for You, Judas and the Black Messiah
Lo Sì (Seen), The Life Ahead
Speak Now, One Night in Miami
Hear My Voice, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who I Think Will Win: Speak Now
Who I Want To Win: no pref
Darkhorse: Fight For You
Why: I just feel like the Academy wants to honor Leslie Odom. He’s not going to win supporting actor, so here’s another way to honor him. Plus, Hamilton buzz. I’m not kidding.
Category: Best Original Score
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
Who I Think Will Win: Soul
Who I Want To Win: Soul
Darkhorse: Minari
Why: Trent Ross, Atticus Ross, and John Batiste are going to be hard to beat. Very beautiful score to a popular movie. The Academy loves that.
Category: Best Live Action Short
Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye
Who I Think Will Win: Two Distant Strangers
Who I Want To Win: Two Distant Strangers
Darkhorse: The Letter Room
Why: Short Films are always some of the hardest to see come Oscar time. TWO DISTANT STRANGERS is widely available on Netflix and I don’t think that is a small thing. It’s also a very beautiful, sometimes hard-to-watch film about a young man who gets stuck in a time loop where he is repeatedly killed by the police. It’s timely. THE LETTER ROOM has Oscar Isaac’s star power, so it could pull an upset here.
Category: Best Animated Short Film
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera
Yes-People
Who I Think Will Win: If Anything Happens, I Love You
Who I Want To Win: Burrow
Darkhorse: Opera
Why: Another benefactor of the Netflix boost, IAH,ILY is widely available and very moving. I thought BURROW was very charming and everybody who’s seen OPERA says it’s a masterpiece. Unfortunately, they don’t have the exposure of a film on Netflix.
Category: Best Documentary Short
Colette
A Concerto Is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha
Who I Think Will Win: A Love Song For Latasha
Who I Want To Win: A Love Song For Latasha
Darkhorse: Hunger Ward
Why: All of these docs are about tough subject matter and can be a little bit of an emotional ringer to go through. A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA once again benefits from the Netflix boost but is also an extremely well-made doc about the murder of the young Black girl during the Los Angeles Riots.
Category: Best Visual Effects
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet
Who I Think Will Win: Tenet
Who I Want To Win: Tenet
Darkhorse: Midnight Sky
Why: This award historically goes to big blockbusters with large set pieces and well… TENET is kind of all we have on that front. People also lose their mind over space movies, so wouldn’t be surprised at a MIDNIGHT SKY win.
Category: Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
Who I Think Will Win: Ma Rainey
Who I Want To Win: Ma Rainey
Darkhorse: Emma
Why: EMMA feels like a movie that was made for this category, but it was rushed out of theaters at the beginning of the pandemic and was left to kind of just languish. MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM is the odds-on favorite here and for good reason. Great makeup, hair, and costumes and this feels like a chance for the Academy to recognize a film that’s not nominated for Best Picture or Director.
Category: Best Costume Design
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio
Who I Think Will Win: Ma Rainey
Who I Want To Win: Ma Rainey
Darkhorse: Emma
Why: The exact same reasons as makeup and hairstyling. See above.
Category: Best Production Design
The Father
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
Tenet
Who I Think Will Win: Mank
Who I Want To Win: The Father
Darkhorse: Tenet
Why: MANK is a movie set in the 1940s and production designer Donald Graham Burt just nails Old Hollywood and Hollywood loves nothing more than to reward movies about itself. THE FATHER’s production design helps tell the story in a fun and clever way, but I think that will be overlooked.
Category: Best Sound
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
Who I Think Will Win: Sound of Metal
Who I Want To Win: Sound of Metal
Darkhorse: Mank
Why: This is the first year that the Oscars have mashed Sound Design and Sound Production into one category. Not to be too obtuse by the choice here is SOUND OF METAL. The sound work, especially the early scenes, are central to the movie and plays a huge part in the story. Don’t know if there is really a competition here.
Category: Best Cinematography
Sean Bobbitt, Judas and the Black Messiah
Erik Messerschmidt, Mank
Dariusz Wolski, News of the World
Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
Phedon Papamichael, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who I Think Will Win: Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
Who I Want To Win: Sean Bobbitt, Judas and the Black Messiah
Darkhorse: Sean Bobbitt, Judas and the Black Messiah
Why: I’m basing this pick on the fact that I think NOMADLAND is going to win Best Picture and quite often, these two awards go hand in hand. Bobbitt does a great job with the kinetic energy of JUDAS, but I think NOMDADLAND takes it.
Category: Best Film Editing
The Father
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who I Think Will Win: Sound of Metal
Who I Want To Win: Sound of Metal
Darkhorse: Trial of the Chicago 7
Why: This category is quite frankly a mess so let’s just go with SOUND OF METAL because it’s the best-edited film out of those listed.
Category: Best Animated Feature
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Who I Think Will Win: Soul
Who I Want To Win: Soul
Darkhorse: Wolfwalkers
Why: It’s really, really hard to take down the Pixar juggernaut. They have 2 of the 5 nominees and I don’t think anybody is touching SOUL when it comes to popularity and wide-ranging availability and likeability. Some small buzz for WOLFWALKERS on Apple + but SOUL should have this one locked up.
Category: Best Documentary Feature
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Who I Think Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
Who I Want To Win: Time
Darkhorse: Collective
Why: MY OCTOPUS TEACHER is the odds-on favorite and the numbers look hard to beat. Once again, the Netflix boost is helping here. TIME is one of the best movies I’ve seen all year and deserves this award but unfortunately won’t get it. COLLECTIVE is widely praised but is also nominated in Best International Feature, so I think it splits its votes two ways.
Category: Best International Feature
Another Round, Denmark
Better Days, Hong Kong
Collective, Romania
The Man Who Sold His Skin, Tunisia
Quo Vadis, Aida? Bosnia and Herzegovina
Who I Think Will Win: Another Round
Who I Want To Win: Another Round
Darkhorse: Quo Vadis, Aida?
Why: Besides MINARI, ANOTHER ROUND may be my favorite film of 2020/2021. This film could have been nominated for Best Picture and I would have gladly welcomed it to the category. I don’t think anyone beats it here.
Category: Best Orignal Screen Play
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who I Think Will Win: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Who I Want To Win: Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas, Judas and the Black Messiah
Darkhorse: Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7
Why: I think the Academy will want to reward Emerald Fennell and PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN in a “big category” because I don’t think she’s winning Best Director or Best Picture. You can never count out Aaron Sorkin, but TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 is not being received as warmly as some of his other films.
Category: Best Adapted Screenplay
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger
Who I Think Will Win: Nomadland
Who I Want To Win: The Father
Darkhorse: The Father
Why: Once again, I feel pretty strongly that NOMADLAND is taking home Best Picture and these two awards are very closely connected.
Category: Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Who I Think Will Win: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Who I Want To Win: Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Darkhorse: none
Why: Ever since awards season started and NOMADLAND premiered the only person I’ve heard being discussed for this award is Chloé Zhao. There is an insane amount of energy pushing towards her and this award and I truly do not see anybody else winning it.
Category: Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Who I Think Will Win: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Who I Want To Win: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Darkhorse: everybody
Why: This is the category I feel the worst about. I truly have no idea. The odds-on favorite is Carey Mulligan for PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN. I’m going with my gut and staying on the NOMADLAND train. Without McDormand, that movie simply does not exist. She grounds the whole thing. Lots of buzz for Viola Davis because as we’ll see in a second, eyes are on MA RAINEY for its acting performances. Wide-open field and I am eager to see who pulls this one out.
Category: Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
Who I Think Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Who I Want To Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and also everybody else
Darkhorse: Anthony Hopkins
Why: Losing Chadwick Boseman was an incredible loss for the movie industry and humanity at large. I fully expect The Academy to give him the award for Best Actor posthumously to honor his entire career. I can genuinely say that I enjoyed every performance listed here. There is a small chance that Anthony Hopkins is rewarded for his work in THE FATHER. It is one of the best actors of his generation doing some of his best work in years. That said, I don’t think it goes anywhere but with Chadwick.
Category: Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who I Think Will Win: Nomadland
Who I Want To Win: Minari
Darkhorse: Minari
Why: As I’ve stated several times throughout this newsletter, I think NOMADLAND takes home the statue for Best Picture. This film has been building buzz since it came out and the buzz and clout around it continue to grow. The combination of Zhao and Macdormand is just going to be hard to overcome. MINARI is my favorite movie of the year so far and Lee Isaac Chung’s small, intimate, and moving portrait of a farm in Arkansas really spoke to me. I hope to see it rewarded but it’s an uphill battle.
The Academy Awards air Sunday at 8ET/5PT on ABC